Evidence for Anthropogenic Global Warming Revisited a Year Later.

When the draft IPCC 4th report first appeared in 2007, I posted a page pointing out that the evidence since the 3rd report had been strongly counter to belief in anthropogenic global warming; and that somehow this hadn't prevented the IPCC from radically upgrading confidence in AGW, thus encouraging a certain skepticism about their credibility.

Its been another 12 months, and its worth reviewing developments since that time.

(1) The earth's temperature went into a tailspin. The earth now hasn't warmed in the last 10 years, according to all 5 temperature series.

(2) The IPCC's predictions of a warming trend have been falsified at (much better than) a 95% level by the measured cooling 2001-2008 according to standard statistical calculation, cf http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/accounting-for-enso-cochrane-orcutt/
This demonstrates the value of their GCM's, which are absolutely integral to their conclusions. The lack of value of their GCMs can hardly be such a surprise, since p 596 of the IPCC draft 4th report cautiously admitted they didn't know whether their GCM's had more data points or free parameters.

(3) The IPCC won a Nobel Prize. Amusingly, and par for the course, this occurred just a few months before publication of the calculation showing their models had been falsified.

(4) JPL's 3000 robots measuring the temperature of the oceans issued their first report, which said that the oceans' cooled slightly from 2003 to 2008. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025.

(5) www.surfacestations.org established that the surface measurements are, to say the least, undependable. Some 70% of the surface stations are class 4 or 5, meaning that systematic errors may well dwarf the measured effect.

(6) The case for a cosmic ray-climate connection keeps getting better and better, cf the box at http://www.sciencebits.com/RealClimateSlurs

(7) This isn't directly relevant to the case, but it is worth keeping in mind that the efforts to ameliorate CO2 production by biofuels have been demonstrated to be vastly increasing CO2 emissions, at the same time as they cost us all vast amounts of money and spur huge inflation in the price of food, at the same time that inflation in food prices is a severe problem for the world, especially in countries where many people are hungry. Also, the EPA estimated that the Lieberman-Warner Global warming bill would shrink the economy by as much as $2.9 Trillion in the year 2050, for a 2095 savings of only 25 parts/million in atmospheric CO2 and an estimated .1 degree Celsius against the situation where no greenhouse gas regulation were implemented. See: this link .